TDN Kentucky Oaks Top 10 for Feb. 24

The GII Rachel Alexandra S., the first prep on the year for the GI Kentucky Oaks in which 50 points are awarded to the winner, topped last weekend's action and produced a surprising result. Turnerlooose (Nyquist), a 17-1 shot conditioned by Brad Cox, and the Todd Pletcher-trained Goddess of Fire (Mineshaft), who was 15-1, finished one two. A Cox-Pletcher exacta somehow paid $437.40. Both fillies enter our Top 10. La Crete, who was eighth in our standings, suffered a condylar fracture and has been retired.

Last week's action also included a win by 'TDN Rising Star' Shahama (Munnings) in the GIII UAE Oaks at Meydan. She earned 50 Oaks points for the victory, but there's been no word yet from the connections regarding a possible Oaks start.

Juju's Map (Liam's Map), the runner-up in last year's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, has yet to have a work this year and has dropped out of our rankings. Gerrymander (Into Mischief) has also been dropped. She has yet to make a start this year and we'll gladly include her again when she makes it to the starting gate.

We'll learn more about the fillies taking the Arkansas route to the Oaks as Oaklawn will present the GIII Honeybee S. on Saturday.

Here's a look at the top 3-year-old fillies who are aiming for the May 6 Oaks:

1) ADARE MANOR (Uncle Mo–Brooklynsway, by Giant's Causeway) O-Michael Lund Petersen; B-Town & Country Horse Farms, LLC & Gary Broad (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $180,000 ylg '20 FTKFEB; $190,000 RNA ylg '20 FTKSEL; $375,000 2yo '21 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-1-0, $56,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Las Virgenes S. Next Start: TBA. KY Oaks Points: N/A.

What's not to like? Adare Manor has run back-to-back 94 Beyers, and the 94 is the top number this year among all 3-year-old fillies. No one is faster. And it may be that no one is better. By super sire Uncle Mo, she absolutely dominated in the Feb. 6 GIII Las Virgenes S., winning by 13 lengths. She had her first post-Las Virgenes work on Feb. 20, going three furlongs in :36.60. The elephant in the room remains Baffert. As things now stand, he is under suspension and cannot compete in the Oaks or any race at Churchill. And his colts and fillies do not accrue ant points in Derby or Oaks preps. Owner Michael Lund Petersen has remained loyal to Baffert, but what will he do if the situation means this very fast filly cannot run in the Oaks as long as Baffert is the trainer?

2) NEST (Curlin–Marion Ravenwood, by A.P. Indy) O-Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners & Michael House; B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $265,000. Last Start: 1st Suncoast S. Next Start: GI Central Bank Ashland S., KEE, Apr. 8. KY Oaks Points: 20.

Nest made the biggest move of any up this chart, going from ninth to second. She did so with a win in the Feb. 12 Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs. At 3-10, she was the overwhelming favorite and didn't face much in the way of competition. That said, she couldn't have been more impressive. With Irad Ortiz, Jr. aboard, Nest swept past the leaders on the far turn and then drew off with ease to win by six lengths.

“We're all very pleased with her performance,” trainer Todd Pletcher said. “She did it professionally and seemed to finish with good energy. We're very excited. She should improve with time and distance.”

Pletcher has a chance to pull off a rare double in the Kentucky Oaks. After Malathaat (Curlin) won last year, he'll be trying for not just his second straight Oaks win, but his second straight with a daughter of Curlin. Nest cost $350,000 at Keeneland September and is owned by the partnership of Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Michael House. Repole doesn't buy many fillies at the sales, but has come across a good one in Nest.

3) KATHLEEN O. (Upstart–Quaver, by Blame) O-Winngate Stables, LLC; B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. & Bridlewood Farm (KY); T-Shug McGaughey. Sales History: $8,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $50,000 ylg '20 OBSOCT; $275,000 2yo '21 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: SW, 2-2-0-0, $104,760. Last Start: 1st Cash Run S. Next Start: GII Davona Dale. S, GP, Mar. 5. KY Oaks Points: 0.

Amazing to think that this filly originally sold for just $8,000. That's what they got for her at the 2019 Keeneland November sale. She sold next at OBS October for $50,000 before Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey bought her for $275,000 at OBS April for owner Pat Kearney.

She goes next in the GII Davona Dale S. Mar. 3 at Gulfstream. It could be a make-or-break race for her. Going into that race, her critics will point out that her races have been slow, a 67 Beyer in her debut followed by a 78 when winning the Cash Run S. at Gulfstream. Her fans will see a horse who has a ton of talent and upside. Unraced since Jan. 1, Kathleen O. has continued with a series of slow half-mile breezes at Payson Park. McGaughey has won the Oaks once, with Dispute in 1993.

4) SECRET OATH (Arrogate–Absinthe Minded, by Quiet American) O-Briland Farm; B-Briland Farm, Robert & Stacy Mitchell (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-3-0-1, $285,167. Last Start: 1st Martha Washington S. Next Start: GIII Honeybee S., OP, Feb. 26. KY Oaks Points: 10.

Trained by 86-year-old Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, Secret Oath headlines Saturday's Honeybee S. at Oaklawn and has been made the 3-2 morning line favorite for the $300,000 race. A Kentucky-bred owned by Robert and Stacy Mitchell, who race under the name of Briland Farm, she doesn't have a lot to prove in the Honeybee. She meets just five others and, based off her recent form, shouldn't lose. She's flourished since getting to Oaklawn.

In her first three starts, she won just once and her top Beyer number was a 64. In Hot Springs, she's won her two starts by a combined 15 1/2 lengths with a 93 Beyer followed by an 88 in the Martha Washington S. It's hard to root against Lukas at a point in his career where not too many top owners seem willing to give one of the best trainers who ever lived a horse.

5) ECHO ZULU (Gun Runner–Letgomyecho, by Menifee) 'TDN Rising Star' O-L and N Racing LLC & Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Betz/J. Betz/Burns/CHNNHK/Magers/CoCo Equine/ Ramsby (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $300,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Filly, MGISW, 4-4-0-0, $1,480,000. Last Start: 1st GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies S. Next Start: TBA. KY Oaks Points: 30.

She had been first on this list since it began earlier in the year, but have to knock her down a few pegs because it looks like she might not be ready to make the Oaks. The 2021 champion juvenile filly has had just three works this year. The latest was a five-furlong breeze in 1:02.40 on Feb. 21 at the Fair Grounds.

When asked if he thought Echo Zulu would make the Oaks, trainer Steve Asmussen replied: “Today, she isn't ready for it, but it doesn't run today.”

At the very best, it looks like Asmussen can only get one prep into her before the Oaks, whereas most horses have at least two. If she makes it, Echo Zulu figures to be a major factor in the Oaks. With wins in the GI Spinaway S., the GI Frizette S. and the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, she was easily the best 2-year-old filly in the sport last year.

6) EDA (Munnings–Show Me, by Lemon Drop Kid) O-Baoma Corporation; B-Nathan McCauley (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $240,000 ylg '20 KEESEP; $550,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-1-0, $370,000. Last Start: 1st GI Starlet S. Next Start: TBA. KY Oaks Points: N/A.

Not sure where's she been or what she is up to. Was a late scratch from the Las Virgenes and did not enter the Honeybee. That may or may not mean her next start will be in the Mar. 6 GIII Santa Ysabel S. Trainer Bob Baffert hasn't announced any plans.

Since her last start, a win in the Dec. 4 GI Starlet S., Eda has been a regular on the work tab. It's hard to know what to make of her. She is a Grade I winner, but didn't beat the best of fields in the Starlet at Los Alamitos. In any other barn, she'd be a star. In Baffert's barm she's been overshadowed by Adare Manor. Like Adare Manor, her status for the Oaks is up in the air because of the Baffert ban at Churchill Downs.

7) HAPPY SOUL (Runhappy–Cowgirl Lucky, by Stephen Got Even) O-Gayla Rankin; B-Harris Training Center, LLC (KY); T-Wesley Ward. Sales History: $50,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MSW, 4-3-1-0, $238,500. Last Start: 1st Dixie Belle S. Next Start: Under consideration for GI Central Bank Ashland S. KY Oaks Points: 0.

At this juncture in her career, she doesn't look like a good fit for the Oaks. With a bit more than two months remaining before the race, she's never gone beyond six furlongs. Yet, trainer Wesley Ward says she is under consideration for the Oaks and said Keeneland's GI Ashland S., a traditional prep for the Oaks, could be next for her.

While getting her to the Oaks may be too much to ask, there's no doubt that this filly by Runhappy has a ton of talent. At two, she broke her maiden by 11 3/4 lengths before winning the Astoria S. by 11 1/2 lengths. Off more than eight months, she beat up on a very good field last week to win the Dixie Belle S. at Oaklawn over six furlongs. This is a very fast horse. Her distance capabilities are the main question.

Happy Soul | Coady Photo

8) TURNERLOOSE (Nyquist–Goaltending, by A.P. Indy) O-Ike & Dawn Thrash; B-William Humphries & Altair Farms LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales History: $32,000 RNA wlg '19 KEENOV; $50,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-1, $531,300. Last Start: 1st GII Rachel Alexandra S. Presented by Fasig-Tipton. Next Start: TBA. KY Oaks Points: 50.

Flew under the radar in the Rachel Alexandra and not because she couldn't run. She was two-for-four as a 2-year-old and won the $500,000 Juvenile Fillies S. at Kentucky Downs. But, coming into the Rachel Alexandra, she had never run on the dirt. Trainer Brad Cox took a shot with her in the Rachel Alexandra and it paid off with her first win in a graded stakes. Considering that her Beyer, an 81, was easily the best of her career, it may be that Turnerloose prefers the dirt. Not sure she beat a stellar group in the Rachel Alexandra. Her next start will tell us more. Cox said she will go next in either the GII Fair Grounds Oaks or the Ashland.

9) MAGIC CIRCLE (Kantharos–Magic Humor, by Distorted Humor) O-J.W. Singer LLC; B-Manitou Farm, LLC (KY); T-Rudy Rodriguez. Sales History: $50,000 yrl '20 KEEJAN; $110,000 2yo '21 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: SW & GSP, 5-2-1-1, $194,000. Last Start: 1st Busanda S. Next Start: Busher S., AQU, Mar. 5. KY Oaks Points: 13.

New York in the winter may not be the ideal time or place to prepare a horse for the Kentucky Oaks, but you sure can make a lot of money staying at Aqueduct. Magic Circle couldn't beat the heavyweights in the Frizette, the Tempted or the GII Demoiselle, but after everyone else shipped to Florida she made her move. She won the $100,000 Busanda S. on Jan. 23 and will go next in the Big A's Busher S. It's a $250,000 race and she figures to be a solid favorite. Magic Circle is by Kantharos, which would suggest distance could be a problem, and trainer Rudy Rodriguez has admitted he thinks a two-turn, nine-furlong race may not be ideal for his filly.

10) GODDESS OF FIRE (Mineshaft–Feel That Fire, by Lightnin N Thunder) O/B-Red Oak Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 5-1-2-1, $159,875. Last Start: 2nd GII Rachel Alexandra S. Presented by Fasig-Tipton. Next Start: TBA. KY Oaks Points: 22.

Like Turnerloose, Goddess of Fire snuck up on everyone when running a big second in the Rachel Alexandra. She broke her maiden last year at first asking at Saratoga, but struggled in stakes company after that, finishing a distant third in the GIII Pocahontas S. and then fifth in the Tempted. She showed a bit more when second in the Gasparilla S. in her 3-year-old debut, but it wasn't enough to suggest she would be a major player in this division. Has she improved or was her showing in the Rachel Alexandra a matter of that being a weak race?